ABSTRACT
Given the broad scope of Ethereum and the wide range of its decentralized applications, this paper investigates its hedging and safe haven capabilities against main fiat currencies, stock and bond indices in the US and Europe, and crude oil and gold markets. We use daily data from January 2016 until February 2021 and apply percentile regressions and crisis event interaction analysis by selecting four worldwide events including US presidential elections, the Brexit referendum, and COVID-19. We reveal that Ethereum does not act as a hedge or a safe haven against fiat currencies, stock and bond indices, and gold. However, it does act as a strong safe haven against crude oil in calm and turbulent periods and against European bonds during market turbulence. The study provides insights to regulators and investors into the potential role of Ethereum in investment decision-making and protecting financial market participants in the US and EU.
ABSTRACT
This paper investigates (i) the return-volatility spillover between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin, (ii) the interdependence between cryptocurrencies' volatility and the US equity and bond markets' volatility, and (iii) the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on the cryptocurrencies' return-volatility. A two-step estimation approach is considered where Univariate General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic models are estimated to model the volatility of the four cryptocurrencies then a Simultaneous Equation Model is estimated to model the interconnection between the cryptocurrency volatilities, the US equity and bond markets' volatility, and Covid-19 outbreak. We show that return-volatility spillovers exist among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin while Ripple is the main transmitter of shocks. We find that the cryptocurrency market is detached from the US stock market but not from the US bond market. Finally, we show that a high economic and financial uncertainty in the US stock market due to pandemic outbreaks affects the price of Litecoin, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. However, shocks are short-lived. Our findings have practical implications; as the evidence of volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies and their relative isolation from the majority of mainstream assets should be factored into the valuation and portfolio diversification strategies of investors. In crisis times such as those induced by Covid-19, investors who seek protection from downward movements in bond markets could benefit from taking a position in Ethereum. Policymakers can also rely on our findings to time their intervention to stabilize markets and control uncertainties inherent to stressful periods.